When in doubt, shout louder

I've heard many people say confidently that even in doubt, it's better to act overconfident, because :

• Who knows, maybe you're right.


• If not, by the time people find out, they'll have forgotten all about you.


• Even those who remember will eventually forgive you.


• Nobody trusts honest, nuanced, fact-based and qualified opinions.

Well, this statement is now supported by honest, nuanced, fact-based and qualified scientific research.